Impeachment likely, removal not: President Pelosi?

Democratics are likely to impeach Trump, but Republicans are unlikely to convict him at trial.

Federal Way resident Bob Roegner is a former mayor of Auburn. Contact bjroegner@comcast.net.

Federal Way resident Bob Roegner is a former mayor of Auburn. Contact bjroegner@comcast.net.

Politics at any level can be pretty harsh, and learning how to play chess is a great tool if you are interested in running for office or becoming active in campaigns. Political operatives get paid a lot of money to figure out different scenarios and strategy.

Here’s why.

The Democratic House of Representatives is likely to impeach President Donald Trump because they believe he may have committed impeachable offenses, but the Republican Senate is not likely to convict him at trial. Both parties win, as neither party wants Trump removed through impeachment.

The strategy is the same as with the impeachment of former President Bill Clinton. For Clinton’s Senate trial, the Republicans were playing a long game, and now the Democrats have joined them. Republicans didn’t want Clinton removed, but they did want both Al Gore and Hillary Clinton tarnished, in addition to Clinton. If Clinton was removed, Gore would have become the acting president and a sympathetic presidential candidate, which could have resulted in Gore winning two terms.

And that long-term thinking? The Republicans anticipated that Hillary Clinton would run for president after Gore. As a result, the Clinton-Gore names were linked at every opportunity to tarnish all three as much as possible and start independent voters viewing Hillary less favorably.

The application to today’s impeachment discussion is similar, but there is an important, though unlikely, twist. The Republican Senate wants to use the process to protect Trump and his authority to appoint judges and implement conservative policy. Their plan is to control the judiciary for the next 30 years, with the United States Supreme Court as a backstop.

Democrats want to defeat Trump at the ballot box and use the turnout to take over the Senate, while retaining the House. Democrats fear if the Senate were to convict Trump, Vice President Mike Pence would become the acting president and could be elected president in the fall. Pence is more familiar with government and would likely not make as many unforced elementary errors as Trump.

And the twist I mentioned?

At the end of last week, Pence’s name surfaced in the impeachment inquiry, and he was not being cooperative with documents requested by House Democrats. What did Pence know and when? And what did he do? If the Democrats in the House can find an impeachable error by Pence and figure out a way to take out both Trump and Pence, Nancy Pelosi, as speaker, is third in line to the presidency. If Pence were impeached and removed with no one in the vice president’s position, the speaker of the House moves up. President Nancy Pelosi!

How many Republicans want to see that happen?

None. So the Republicans will try and keep a damaged Trump or Pence in place at almost any cost, including control of the Senate. Adding Pence to the impeachment process weakens the Trump-Pence ticket now, and Pence in the future. You will hear more linkage of the two names.

There will be all kinds of new chess moves before we get to the 2020 election, so prepare for a bumpy ride.

Federal Way resident Bob Roegner is a former mayor of Auburn. Contact bjroegner@comcast.net.


Talk to us

Please share your story tips by emailing editor@auburn-reporter.com.

To share your opinion for publication, submit a letter through our website https://www.auburn-reporter.com/submit-letter/. Include your name, address and daytime phone number. (We’ll only publish your name and hometown.) Please keep letters to 300 words or less.

More in Opinion

Federal Way resident Bob Roegner is a former mayor of Auburn. Contact bjroegner@comcast.net.
Points of contention on police inquests in King County

Inquests frequently unfold against a backdrop of sadness and drama: Family members’… Continue reading

Guests gather to view a photo of Pilchuck Julia during the naming ceremony of the Snohomish River boat landing named for her in August, 2019. (Kevin Clark / Herald file photo)
Editorial: What history is owed through our monuments

The decisions regarding whom we honor in our public squares require deliberation and consensus.

Federal Way resident Bob Roegner is a former mayor of Auburn. Contact bjroegner@comcast.net.
Defund the police department? | Roegner

Our country is at a defining moment in our search for true… Continue reading

Why this newspaper is capitalizing Black | Editorial

Moving forward, the Auburn Reporter will capitalize Black when referring to the… Continue reading

Doreen Davis, left in mask, waves at parade participants on May 2. Olivia Sullivan/staff photo
Wear your face-hugging, ever-loving mask | Editorial

“Don’t make me come down there.” — New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo,… Continue reading

Jayendrina Singha Ray is a PhD (ABD) in English, with a research focus on the works of the South African Nobel Laureate John Maxwell Coetzee. She teaches English Composition and Research Writing at Highline College, WA, and has previously taught English at colleges in India.
The search for selfhood

What really matters is the desire to find.

Valley police chiefs of King County release unified message in response to death of George Floyd

Police chiefs of Des Moines, Tukwila, Renton, Federal Way, Kent, Auburn, Algona, Pacific, Black Diamond and the Port of Seattle pledge to stand with communities.

Pandemic illustrates the need for government action

Despite spending most of my life in government and politics and working… Continue reading

Back to the wild — a whole new outdoor recreation world | Guest editorial

When enjoying the great outdoors, continue to socially distance and be aware of how else COVID-19 has changed our world.

KCLS is stepping up its commitment to patrons

KCLS has expanding its online resources so patrons can continue to learn, build skills, stay entertained and remain mentally and physically active amid the pandemic.

How using a face mask to cover my Asian face could put me in danger

Since the COVID-19 outbreak began, Asians and Asian Americans have been targeted.

Opinion: Public deserves honest information on sex education

The Washington comprehensive sex education bill passed in the Senate on March 7.